The most anticipated news about the change in All India Consumer Price Index, which is connected to the calculation of Dearness allowance for CG employees and Pensioners, just released by labour Bureau today.

The index is still standing in the same position of 253 past four months. So the expected da from january 2015 is almost confirmed to hike by 6% only.

And the next AICPIN for the month of December 2014 will be issued by the Labour Bureau on 30th January 2015.

Labour Bureau issued official report of CPI for November 2014 as follows…

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – November, 2014

No. 5/1/2014- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU
`CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-171004
DATED: the 31st December, 2014

Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) – November, 2014

The All-India CPI-IW for November, 2014 remained stationary at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it remained static between October, 2014 and November, 2014 when compared with the rise of 0.83 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The largest upward pressure to the change in current index came from Miscellaneous group contributing (+) 0.17 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Wheat, Rice, Moong Dal, Masur Dal, Arhar Dal, Eggs (Hen), Goat Meat, Milk (Cow), Onion, Tea (Readymade), Private Tution Fee, Flower/Flower Garlands, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted to some extent by Ginger, Chillies green, Vegetable items, Sugar, Petrol, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 4.12 per cent for November, 2014 as compared to 4.98 per cent for the previous month and 11.47 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 2.56 per cent against 4.48 per cent of the previous month and 16.17 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Madurai reported an increase of 12 points followed by Chennai (11 points), Tiruchirapally (7 points), Coonoor (6 points), Salem and Coimbatore (5 points each) and Bangluru (4 points). Among others, 3 points rise was observed in 3 centres, 2 points in 7 centres and 1 point in 9 centres. On the contrary, Srinagar recorded a decrease of 6 points and Ghaziabad (5 points). Among others, 4 points fall was registered in 2 centres, 3 points in 6 centres, 2 points in 12 centres and 1 point in 19 centres. Rest of the 11 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 38 centres are above and other 39 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Bhopal centre remained at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-IW for the month of December, 2014 will be released on Friday, 30 January, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in.

(S. S. NEGI)
DIRECTOR

Source: Labour Bureau

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It looks as if there is scarcely any curiosity among Central Government employees to know about the next DA hike percentage. With just about everybody trying to predict the percentage hike, the topic has lost its novelty. Moreover, with DA increase not amounting to anything much, the curiosity to know has also nosedived.

Consumer Price Indices (CPI) measure changes over time in general level of prices of goods and services that households acquire for the purpose of consumption. CPI is widely used as a macroeconomic indicator of inflation, as a tool by governments and central banks for inflation targeting and for monitoring price stability, and as deflators in the national accounts. CPI is also used for indexing dearness allowance to employees for increase in prices.

There is huge change in CPI (General) and CFPI, have a look the comparison table is given below…

Click to continue reading…

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We are talking about an important index for the calculation of Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees and Pensioners. The index, All Indian Average Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) Base Year 2001=100 is calculated and released by labour Bureau every month.

Last date of the every month, the detail of statistics has been published by the Labour Bureau. According to this, month of November 2014 index numbers will be released on 31st Dec 2014.

The index stands now at 253, there is no expectation to climb up. Because not at all change the index of 253 for three months. In coming months, the index may be continue in the down trend, i.e., 252, 251.

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Nowadays, the attractive and magical word of “Expected DA” is losing interest amidst Central Government employees..!

We are proud to claim that we were the first to introduce the phrase, “Expected DA”.

Central Govt employees are getting additional Dearness Allowance twice in a year according to the fluctuation of Consumer Price Index. Generally all employees, including state and central government employees are showing interest to know the hike of additional Dearness allowance in advance.

In 2009, when, for the first time we wrote an article under the title “Expected DA (Dearness Allowance) from Jan 2009 for Central Government Employees“, we did feel a bit uneasy. We were wondering if the readers would comprehend the title properly. Even the familiar publications like “Swamy’s News” didn’t have such phrases that time.
The phrase “Expected DA”, received tremendous response from the Central Government employees and earned a place for itself in their hearts. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration for us to claim that after the magical ‘Central Government Employees News’, this was the most exciting phrase that we had come up with.

As far as we know, “Swamy’s News” was the only publication that had successfully predicted the Dearness Allowance accurately for a number of years. It is not an ordinary feat for a private publication to be treated on par with a Government Order. This is the reason why, despite the onslaught of the internet, the publication is still gaining tremendous growth.

In January 2009, we announced a 6% expected additional DA. Since then, with Dearness Allowance rising continuously, the curiosity and eagerness to hear the forecast continued to grow. With two 10% hikes in 2010, the response to our forecasts was nothing short of mind-boggling.

Normally, Government employees are more than eager to receive positive news about salary hike, like increment, DA, Arrears, Bonus etc.,. Yet, strangely, there is a slight dip in the kind of interest that the phrase “Expected DA” triggers nowadays.

In 2009 Our Forecasts in additional Dearness Allowance…
Expected DA from Jan 2009

Expected DA from July 2009

DA Table

Source: 90PAISA
[http://90paisa.blogspot.in/2014/10/expected-da-phrase-losing-interest.html]

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The Centre has announced a  hike of 7% Dearness Allowance and Dearness Relief for Central Government employees and Pensioners, with effect from July 2014 on 4th of this month. Soon, Finance Ministry will issue appropriate orders

for payment of Dearness allowance to all. As and when orders are published by the Ministry of Finance, we will be posted in our website immediately.

According to the fluctuation of price index past six months from Jan to Jun 2014, the additional Dearness allowance has been arrived as 7% only. It seems there are a few employees who are unhappy with the single-digit number

because until then they have been getting double-digit DA hikes.

The disappointment also reflects the high expectations that people have from the Modi government. Our readers have been raising a number of questions in this regard. While the previous Manmohan Singh government had twice given

them DA hike of 10%, why has Modi government given them only 7% increase?

First of all, the ruling party at the Centre has no direct impact on the DA calculations. DA is calculated on the basis of AICPIN points, which are based on price rise.

The current system of DA calculations, which is being done as per the recommendations of the 6th Pay Commission, will come to an end after two more instalments (Jan 2015 and July 2015). Recommendations of the 7th Pay

Commission are expected to come into effect from Jan 2016 onwards.

Now, the next episode begins…’Expected DA from January 2015′

It is highly unlikely that there will be a two-digit DA hike in the next two instalments (January 2015 and July 2015). Kindly keep in mind the fact that despite a 6 point increase of the AICPIN from 246 to 252 for the month of July 2014,

there was hardly an impact. Even if it increases by 3 points over the next five months, the DA would increase to 9% only. It is impossible for AICPIN to constantly increase in future.

We believe that, under current circumstances, the next installment of additional Dearness allowance from Jan 2015 hike would only be about 6 or 7%.

We have analyzed the impact of CPI number on increasing DA and given below a table to express the same for your information…

Source: CGEN.inSimilar Posts:

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